Halfway between the last COP28 in UAE and the next COP29 in Azerbaijan, the climate change debate insists on the need to implement more effective actions to lead in reducing greenhouse gases emissions to maintain the increase of global temperature up to 1.5°C. The result of the “first global stocktake”, the core of COP28 agenda, showed that we are far from achieving the Paris Agreement objective and commitments. To limit global warming up to 1.5°C, greenhouse gases must be reduced by 43% in 2030, compared to 2019 levels. [1]
Likewise, the agency Wood Mackenzie adjusted its sceneries, while still maintain the premises of its base case, considered “the most probable case”, now a new scenery called “delayed energy transition” has been added, in which, a delay of five years in decarbonization actions has been analyzed.
The base case considers a global average temperature rise to 2,5°C by 2050, based on energy transition relied on policies promoting the progressively use of renewable energy. While, the delayed transition case raises the increment of CO2 emissions until 2032 and temperatures increasing up to 3°C above the pre-industrial levels. [2]
Certainly, some analysts agree that technological, economic and political reasons have been shaping a different panorama affecting the decarbonization goals. The incorporation of renewable energy technologies would take longer than expected due to their high costs and the subsidies required for their implementation.
The pandemic and Ukraine war have also raised concerns among citizens and politicians about energy security, affordability and reliability. Consequently, the scenario turns out to be fertile land for fossil fuels to satisfy the growing energy demand uncovered by the renewable energies.
Particularly, the European Union adjusted the measure to ban on the new sale of gasoline and diesel cars in 2035 and the subsequent elimination in 2050. The new measure proposes extending the deadline beyond 2035, allowing sale of “low emissions” cars, opening up the market to a broader and more flexible multi-energy offer, where synthetic fuels and fossil fuels coexist. [4]
In line with the above, the OPEC is committed to a world with lower levels of CO2 emissions as a result of technological development, where, various energy sources coexist along with fossil fuels to satisfy global energy demand, which is expected to increase around 20% by 2045, and will require investments in the oil sector estimated at around 600 billion dollars per year. [5]
In fact, the United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member country and the venue of COP28 shows how a net oil exporting country has been making investments to develop renewable energy sources, carbon dioxide capture and storage, removing carbon dioxide, as well as, circular economy.
Other example is the United Kingdom government, which adjusted some of the green commitments last year, as the unpopular measures had a high cost passed to the citizens. Thus, the ban on new petrol and diesel cars and vans was delayed five years from 2030 to 2035, as well as, new installation and replacement of gas boilers in buildings and industry was extended to 2035, rather than being phased out in 2026. However, net zero emission target by 2050 is still committed. [6] [7]
Regarding Woodmac, the agency considers that East Asia region, especially, China, is a key participant to achieve the net zero emission target, as it replaces coal consumption by natural gas and, simultaneously, raises renewable energy use. The agency assures that any delay could completely stop the objective achievement.
Likewise, COP continues to invite governments and private sector (companies and banks) to actively participate to develop and use renewable energies to replace fossil fuels and although that has been a well-known request for years talking about the climate change, the COP28 sought to be seen as the conference that signals “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. [8]
An expected key topic for COP29, in Azerbaijan, is environmental financing to achieve the goal of net zero emissions in 2050. Particularly, the focus would be on financing and aid from the countries historically responsible for the highest greenhouse gas emissions to the most vulnerable countries, which, in contrast, have historically released the lowest gas emissions into the atmosphere.
In addition to the countries with greater historical responsibilities, the inclusion of financing by other high-income countries, such as oil-producing countries, has been recently proposed and that issue seems to also be addressed in Azerbaijan.
Finally, according to the agreements of COP28, another of the key points on the agenda in Azerbaijan will be the challenge taken on by countries to prepare concrete plans for the benefit of the environment before 2025.
Iris Mujica
Sources:
[1] https://unfccc.int/es/cop28/5-key-takeaways#end-of-fossil-fuels
[3] https://elperiodicodelaenergia.com/mundo-encamina-hacia-trayectoria-calentamiento-3-c/
[4] https://www.eldebate.com/motor/20240208/pasara-coches-gasolina-diesel-alla-2035_173011.html
[5] https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7232.htm
[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/what-are-britains-energy-targets-how-could-they-change-2023-09-20/
[8] https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era
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