From the Kyoto Protocol to the current challenges

The Kyoto Protocol (1997) was the first binding international agreement aimed to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) by 5% based on 1990 levels in the period between 2008-2012. Since then, new stricter arrangements took place, such as: the Doha Amendment (2012), the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020) and the Paris Agreement (2015). Certainly, the continuous increment of the global GGE have demanded more ambitious goals to fight against climate change, in an increasingly complex landscape immersed in the global economic recovery post-COVID19, the Ukraine war, as well as, efforts to reduce GGE are done unevenly among countries and so on. In this context, next COP28 will take place in Dubai in November 2023, which is expected to show the results of the first “Global Stocktake” to verify the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement commitments, facing a shorter period to maintain the increase in the global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. 

The Kyoto Protocol

The relevance of the Kyoto Protocol lies in the fact that was an international agreement that stablished measures and guidelines in favor of greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) reduction to mitigate the effects on the climate change. Today, the challenge to reduce GGE persists as a pending global task accompanied with new agreements and commitments, which require strict technical, economic, financial, social and political efforts to reach out the defiance goal. 

While the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) exhorted countries to develop policies and mechanisms to mitigate GGE, the Protocol emerged in the 3^rd Conference Of Parties (COP) in Kyoto, Japan, as the practical instrument of the Convention as specifies measures to be committed by the industrialized countries [1].

The Kyoto Protocol was approved on 11 November 1997. The long negotiation process led to the Protocol entering into force on February 16 2005, and two commitment periods took place: 2008-2012 and 2013–2020. Initially, the Agreement aimed at committing the European Union and 37 industrialized countries to limit and reduce levels of greenhouse gases from human activity by at least 5% compared to 1990 levels, according to their “common responsibility but differentiated and respective capacities.”

In 2012, the Doha amendment [2] led new commitments for the second period of the Kyoto Protocol from 2013 to 2020.  Regarding the Doha Amendment, its approval required 144 instruments of acceptance by the Parties, which were finally reached in 2020. Thus, the Amendment entered into force on 31 December 2020.

For the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the countries agreed to reduce the GGE levels by at least 18% based on 1990 levels [3]. According to the United Nations (UN), the GGE level was 7,534 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 1990 and registered 5,627 MtCO2eq in 2018, which represents a successfully reduction of 25%.

While the EU and the 37 countries committed to reach the Kyoto Protocol goal celebrated that achievement, in line with their common but differentiated responsibilities and some countries which did not accepted the measures, the global results were less optimistic. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the global level of GGE increased 63%, from 21,019 MtCO2eq in 1990 to 34,350 MtCO2eq in 2018 [4].

The Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement was achieved at the COP21 on 12 December 2015 [5], to continue working to accelerate and intensify the required actions to fight against the climate change and entered into force in 4 November 2016.  The aim was to hold the increase in the global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The instrument is defined as legally binding international treaty on climate change that requires all Parties to carried out actions according to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), whose achievements are supposed to be periodically informed to the Convention following a “five-year-cycle”, which serves as check-up by country in order to continue working on its action plans.

The Paris Agreement was also designed to provide a framework for “financial, technical and capacity building support” [5]. Nonetheless, the access and cost to obtain the support rise concerns in those countries with limited small economies and technology, as well as, questions emerge about the possible limitations to develop their industries in a more expensive and restricted context.

Taking up the issue about the strengthening of measures in the Paris Agreement, a called “Global Stocktake” was expected to be a close monitoring tool to be estimated every five years to show the global achievements [6]. The UN considers the “Global Stocktake” as an ambitious exercise to become effective to reach out the goals in coming years. Thus, the first results of the “Global Stocktake” will be showed at the COP28 in Dubai in November 2023, the report is practically considered the master piece of the event.

Current challenges

The long battle against the climate change seems to have faced difficulties to provide significant results as planned. The time passes and the UN urges to accelerate and accomplish the global action plans, since there is still much to do [7]. Definitely, COVID-19 and the Ukraine war has affected progress in reducing GGE, however, efforts are done unevenly.

Furthermore, recent studies prepared by the UN on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the UN (IPCC) indicate that global temperature increase would be close to 2.5°C by the end of the century, thus, the current level of GGE require to be reduced 50% by 2030 [6].

The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) recently released a report on 26 October 2023 [8], affirming that GGE reached historic peaks in 2021. Biological process and human activity are considered as possible causes. The OMM has been registering the concentration level of GGE for forty years.

The report indicates that concentration level in 2021 of Carbon dioxide (CO2) was 416 parts per million (ppm), Methane (CH4) was 1,908 ppm and Nitrous oxide (N2O) was 335 ppm, which represents 149%, 262% and 124%, respectively, higher compare to the pre-industrial levels.

The world economic recovery after COVID-19 and the natural gas price crisis has encourage the use of coal, which has led the peak of CO2 concentration, according to the IEA [9], whose data shows 34,175 MtCO2eq of GGE in 2021 [4]. Notwithstanding, The Agency assures that renewable energies show positive figures, the increment of fossil fuels for transportation and, specifically, coal for power generation led the higher level of GGE.

According to the sources, energy demand has been mainly satisfied with fossil fuels and the big question is if renewable energies are able (or will be) to replace them and compensate the supply of energy. Certainly, the complex context around economic recovery after COVID-19 and the Ukraine war triggered the use of oil, natural gas and coal, however, other factors also impact the energy market: the biggest economies of the world still produce the highest GGE levels, in contrast, developing countries need to continue growing their economies and consider the current level of contamination is responsibility of the industrialized countries [10], according to the principle of “common responsibility but differentiated and respective capacities.” .

Furthermore, there are other possible scenarios. Firstly, the world trade from countries non implementing measures to reduce GGE may export products to industrialized countries, which take advantage of avoiding their higher production costs with low/zero GGE. Secondly, critical raw material production and commerce [11], which represents a challenge for security of supply.

In this regard, beyond the “Global Stocktake”, next COP28 in Dubai could be taking place in a more defiant scenario compared to the previous COPs, as several challenging topics are necessary to be addressed on technical and political agendas, in order to effectively implement actions to limit and reduce the GGE and keep the global temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels to mitigate the effects on the climate change for the coming years.

By Iris Mujica

Sources:

[1] https://unfccc.int/es/kyoto_protocol 

[2] https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/the-doha-amendment

https://www.upm.es/e-politecnica/?p=8943

[3] https://unfccc.int/es/news/todavia-es-posible-alcanzar-la-segunda-fase-de-reduccion-de-emisiones-de-kyoto-pero-es-necesaria-mas#:~:text=La%20Enmienda%20reforz%C3%B3%20los%20compromisos,con%20los%20niveles%20de%201990.

[4] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer

[5] https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement

[6] https://unfccc.int/es/temas/balance-mundial/about-the-global-stocktake/por-que-el-balance-mundial-es-un-momento-critico-para-la-accion-climatica#Why-is-this-so-urgent

[7] https://www.europapress.es/sociedad/medio-ambiente-00647/noticia-onu-avisa-aun-queda-mucho-hacer-acuerdo-paris-pide-mas-ambicion-contra-cambio-climatico-20230908175529.html

[8] https://public.wmo.int/es/media/comunicados-de-prensa/se-suceden-las-malas-noticias-para-el-planeta-los-niveles-de-gases-de

[9] https://unfccc.int/es/news/las-emisiones-mundiales-de-co2-repuntaron-en-2021-hasta-su-nivel-mas-alto-de-la-historia

[10] https://unfccc.int/es/news/la-mayoria-de-los-paises-desarrollados-estan-en-camino-de-cumplir-sus-objetivos-de-reduccion-de 

[11] https://piernext.portdebarcelona.cat/logistica/el-suministro-de-materias-primas-criticas-un-reto-para-europa/